Potential Impact of Initial Clinical Data on Adjustment of Pediatric Readmission Rates.

Objective: Comparison of readmission rates requires adjustment for case-mix (ie, differences in patient populations), but previously only claims data were available for this purpose. We examined whether incorporation of relatively readily available clinical data improves prediction of pediatric readmissions and thus might enhance case-mix adjustment.

Methods: We examined 30-day readmissions using claims and electronic health record data for patients ≤18 years and 29 days of age who were admitted to 3 children's hospitals from February 2011 to February 2014. Using the Pediatric All-Condition Readmission Measure and starting with a model including age, gender, chronic conditions, and primary diagnosis, we examined whether the addition of initial vital sign and laboratory data improved model performance. We employed machine learning to evaluate the same variables, using the L2-regularized logistic regression with cost-sensitive learning and convolutional neural network.

Results: Controlling for the core model variables, low red blood cell count and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and high red cell distribution width were associated with greater readmission risk, as were certain interactions between laboratory and chronic condition variables. However, the C-statistic (0.722 vs 0.713) and McFadden's pseudo R (0.085 vs 0.076) for this and the core model were similar, suggesting minimal improvement in performance. In machine learning analyses, the F-measure (harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value) was similar for the best-performing model (containing all variables) and core model (0.250 vs 0.243).

Conclusions: Readily available clinical variables do not meaningfully improve the prediction of pediatric readmissions and would be unlikely to enhance case-mix adjustment unless their distributions varied widely across hospitals.