The effect of varying the number of contributors in the prosecution and alternate propositions.

Forensic Sci Int Genet

Forensic Science SA, 21 Divett Place, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100 Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.

Published: January 2019

Using a simplified model, we examine the effect of varying the number of contributors in the prosecution and alternate propositions for a number of simulated examples. We compare the Slooten and Caliebe [1] solution, with several existing practices. Our own experience is that most laboratories, and ourselves, assign the number of contributors, N = n, by allele count and a manual examination of peak heights. The LR for one or a very few values is calculated and typically one of these is presented, usually the most conservative. This gives an acceptable approximation. Reassessing the number of contributors if LR = 0 and adding one to N under both H and H to "fit" the POI may lead to a substantial overstatement of the LR. A more reasonable option is to allow optimisation of the assignment under H and H separately. We show that an additional contributor explained the single locus profile better when PHR≥0.51. This is pleasingly in line with current interpretation approaches. Collectively these trials, and the solid theoretical development, suggest that the Slooten and Caliebe approach preforms well.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2018.11.011DOI Listing

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