Changing clinical profiles and in-hospital outcomes of octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery over 18 years: a single-centre experience†.

Objectives: With an ageing population, increasing numbers of octogenarians are undergoing high-risk cardiac surgery. We examine the changing characteristics and in-hospital outcomes for octogenarians over an 18-year period.

Methods: Clinical data from our prospective database for all octogenarians who had cardiac surgery from March 1999 through May 2016 were reviewed. We examined trends, risk profiles and in-hospital outcomes over 3 eras, namely early (1999-2004), middle (2005-2010) and late (2011-2016). A multivariable analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for adverse outcomes.

Results: There were 1022 patients aged 80-94 years in our study cohort. The octogenarian population increased progressively from early to late eras (4.5%, n = 255 vs 7.1%, n = 321 vs 9.3%, n = 446), as the average logistic EuroSCORE predicted mortality (9% vs 9.7% vs 10.1%, P < 0.01). On the contrary, observed mortality declined substantially (9.4% vs 7.8% vs 4.7%, P = 0.04) over this period. While cardiac morbidity and respiratory comorbidities were more prevalent in the late era, chronic renal failure was more frequent in the early era. Over time, more procedures were performed electively (P = 0.05). Common operations across all eras were coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), aortic valve replacement and CABG + aortic valve replacement. Emergency operation [odds ratio (OR) 4.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-16.35; P < 0.01], poor ejection fraction (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.80-6.32; P < 0.01) and bypass time (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02; P < 0.01) were predictors of in-hospital mortality. The late era of surgery (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23-0.73; P < 0.01) was associated with reduced mortality risk.

Conclusions: The operative outcome in this growing surgical population is steadily improving despite the increasing prevalence of comorbidities, and surgery should be performed electively as much as possible.