Individualized Follow-Up Strategy for Patients with an Indeterminate Response to Initial Therapy for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

Background: The concept of a dynamic risk-stratification scheme has been suggested for individualized management of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, there is no specified follow-up strategy for patients with an indeterminate response.

Methods: This study evaluated 403 PTC patients who had an indeterminate response during the first 12-24 months after initial therapy. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy with radioactive iodine remnant ablation. Patients were further classified into three groups based on risk of structural persistence/recurrence: a Tg+ group (detectable thyroglobulin [Tg], regardless of antithyroglobulin antibody [TgAb] or imaging findings; 196 patients), a TgAb+ group (positive results for TgAb with undetectable Tg, regardless of imaging findings; 46 patients), and an Image+ group (nonspecific findings on neck ultrasonography or faint uptake in the thyroid bed on whole-body scan, with undetectable Tg and negative results for TgAb; 161 patients).

Results: With a median of 9.6 years (interquartile range 7.7-11.2 years) of follow-up, 56 (14%) PTC patients had structural persistent/recurrent disease: 50 (89%) at locoregional sites and six (11%) at distant sites. The recurrence rate in Tg+, TgAb+, and Image + groups were 26.5%, 8.7%, and 0%, respectively. The median time to detection of structural persistent/recurrent disease from the initial thyroid surgery was 3.7 years (interquartile range 2.5-6.3 years). The optimal cutoff stimulated Tg level to predict structural persistent/recurrent disease was 3.1 ng/mL in the Tg+ group. This classification system revealed higher predictability of structural persistent/recurrent disease than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system and American Thyroid Association risk stratification (proportion of variation explained: 15.7% vs. 2.4% and 0.9%, respectively). Six (3%) patients with distant metastatic disease were all classified in the Tg+ group, and all had lung metastasis.

Conclusions: The findings suggest a more individualized follow-up strategy for patients with an indeterminate response. More careful evaluation, including early evaluation of distant metastasis, is necessary in patients with elevated Tg levels. However, for patients testing positive for TgAb or those with only nonspecific imaging findings, regular follow-ups of Tg and TgAb levels and neck ultrasonography are sufficient.