Underlying causes of PM-induced premature mortality and potential health benefits of air pollution control in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014.

Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in premature mortality attributable to PM has important implications for air quality control in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA). The number of PM-induced premature deaths during 1999-2014 in SSEA was estimated using an integrated exposure-response model based on 0.01° × 0.01° satellite-retrieved PM data, population density, and spatially and temporally variable baseline mortality data. The results showed extremely high premature death rates in North India and Bangladesh. PM-induced premature deaths in SSEA increased with small interannual variations from 1999 to 2014 owing to the interannual variations in PM concentrations. Moreover, four scenarios on the effects of premature deaths by PM mitigation efforts based on World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQG) and interim targets (ITs) were investigated for each disease and each country during 1999-2014. Four scenarios based on WHO AQG (10 μg/m), IT-3 (15 μg/m), IT-2 (25 μg/m), and IT-1 (35 μg/m) resulted in 69.3%, 49.1%, 25.4%, and 12.8% reductions compared to the total reference premature deaths (1256,300), which was calculated using the original PM datasets. Overall, stroke was the most serious disease associated with air pollution, causing 40% of total premature deaths. Ischemic heart disease was the largest contributor (58%) to the deaths in relatively cleaner air (Scenario 1). The annual rate of change in premature deaths in South Asian countries (India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) was higher than that in Southeast Asian countries under all scenarios. The results for different scenarios provide insight into the largest health benefits of PM reduction efforts.