Statistical models to predict discharge overflow.

In the paper, a comparison of prediction results concerning the annual number of discharges of stormwater from the drainage system due to stormwater overflows is depicted. The prediction has been computed by means of storm water management model (SWMM) and probabilistic models. Regarding the probabilistic modelling some simple statistical models such as logit, probit, Gompertz and linear discriminant analysis model have been applied, and as for the hydrodynamic modelling a generator of synthetic rainfall based on the Monte Carlo method has been used. The analyses conducted has shown that logit, probit and Gompertz models give outputs that are comparable with the results of hydrodynamic modelling and are concordant with observations. Whereas the annual number of stormwater discharge predicted by the linear discriminant analysis model is significantly lower than the number obtained by hydrodynamic modelling. The calculations made have confirmed the possibility of using statistical models as an alternative for developing labour-consuming and complex hydrodynamic models. The statistical models can be used successfully to predict the stormwater overflows operation provided that the measurements of rainfall in the catchment and of filling the overflow are available.