The objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date estimate of the incidence of adenocarcinoma detected during surveillance of Barrett's esophagus. Fifty-five longitudinal studies involving approximately 61 000 patients were reviewed. A general linear model analyses with Poisson link function was used to study how the number of cancer cases detected depended on study details. The studies seemed to follow the same statistical model, and the probability of developing Barrett's carcinoma during surveillance was found to depend on the following variables: how Barrett's metaplasia was defined, the number of patients studied, the mean time of follow-up, and the fraction of patients followed up for at least 5 years. The model derived from all the studies predicted that the per-person probability of developing cancer in 5 years of complete follow-up is approximately .0012.
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