A preoperative prediction model for risk of multiple admissions after colon cancer surgery.

Background: A subset of patients who undergo colon cancer surgery may be at a high risk of multiple subsequent admissions. We developed a simplified model to predict the preoperative risk of multiple postoperative admissions (MuAdm) among patients undergoing colon resection to aid in preoperative planning.

Methods: Patients aged ≥18 y with colon cancer who underwent elective surgical resection identified in discharge claims from California and New York (2008-2011) were included. The primary outcome, MuAdm, was defined as 2 or more admissions in the year following resection. Logistic regression models were developed to identify factors predictive of MuAdm. A weighted point system was developed using beta-coefficients (P < 0.05). A random sample of 75% of the data was used for model development, which was validated in the remaining 25% sample.

Results: A total of 14,780 patients underwent colon resection for cancer. Almost 30% had an admission in the year after index surgery and 9.8% had MuAdm. The significant predictors of MuAdm were higher Elixhauser comorbidity index score, metastatic disease, payer system, and the number of admissions in the year before surgery. Scores ranged from 0 to 8. Scores ≤1 had a 7% risk of MuAdm, and scores ≥6 had a >30% risk of MuAdm.

Conclusions: In the year following discharge after resection of colon cancer, nearly 10% of patients are admitted 2 or more times. A simple, preoperative clinical model can prospectively predict the likelihood of multiple admissions in patients anticipating resection. This model can be used for preoperative planning and setting postoperative expectations more accurately.