Predictors of mortality among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition, Northwest Ethiopia: an institution based retrospective cohort study.

Background: Globally, approximately 19 million children under 5 years are suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). It is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries including Ethiopia. However, little is known regarding predictors of mortality among these children in Ethiopia. The current study aimed to assess the potential predictors of mortality among under-five children with SAM admitted to a stabilization center.

Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 527 under-five children who were admitted for SAM at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital from 2014 to 2016. Data were collected from a randomly selected chart after getting ethical clearance. Data were cleaned, coded and entered to Epi-info (version 7) and analyzed using STATA (version14). The outcome was computed by using tables and graphs. A multivariable cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify predictors of mortality.

Result: Overall, the median follow-up period was 10 days with interquartile range (Q1, Q3: 8, 17). At the end of the follow-up, the mortality rate was 66(12.52%). Anemia (AHR(Adjusted Hazard Ratio): 2.3, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.5), Shock (AHR: 7.9, 95% CI: 3.7, 16.7), no intake of antibiotics (AHR: 2.3 95% CI: 1.2, 4.4), IV-Fluid (AHR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.7, 5.8), no intake of F75 (AHR: 6.6,95% CI: 2.9, 14.7) and no intake of F100 (AHR: 3, 95% CI: 1.6, 5.4) were independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusion: The survival status of under-five children with SAM was lower than the national standard protocol. Altered general conditions such as shock, anemia, not adhering to medical and nutritional therapies were identified as predictors of mortality among SAM children. Health education on early medical seeking behavior and adherence on the routine regimens may improve this gap in child survival.