Estimating age group-dependent sensitivity and mean sojourn time in colorectal cancer screening.

Objective: In evaluating the efficacy of cancer screening programmes, sojourn time (duration of the preclinical detectable phase) and sensitivity of the screening test are the two key parameters. Studies suggest that in breast cancer screening, both parameters may vary depending on age at the time of screening, but few studies have examined other cancers. We expanded an existing probability model for periodic screening by performing simultaneous estimation of age group-dependent and sensitivity at preclinical onset time, and tested the expanded model using data from the Korean National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme.

Methods: Simulation studies were conducted to assess the performance of the proposed probability model. The method was then applied to the analysis of 376,542 participants aged 50 or over who underwent fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) as part of the National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme between 2004 and 2007. Age group-dependent mean sojourn time and screening sensitivity of FOBT for colorectal cancer were derived using maximum likelihood estimation.

Results: The method performed well in terms of bias, standard deviation, and coverage probability. National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme data results indicated that the sensitivity of FOBT to detect colorectal cancer increases with age, while mean sojourn time decreases with age (approximately 4.3 years for participants aged 50-54, 3.9 years at age 55-59, 3.4 years at age 60-64, and 3.6 years at age 65-69, with corresponding sensitivity estimates around 41%, 47%, 45%, and 51%, respectively).

Conclusion: Simulation studies showed that the proposed stochastic model considering both mean sojourn time and sensitivity yields highly accurate results.