The Bayesian risk estimate at onset (BREMSO) correlates with cognitive and physical disability in patients with early multiple sclerosis.

Background: Prevention of long-term disability is the goal of therapeutic intervention in Relapsing Remitting MS (RRMS). The Bayesian Risk Estimate for MS at Onset (BREMSO) gives an individual risk score predicting disease evolution into Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS). We investigated whether BREMSO correlates with physical disability, cognitive dysfunction, and regional brain atrophy early in MS.

Methods: One hundred RRMS patients with at least two years of follow-up were enrolled. BREMSO score as well as Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk Test (T25-FW) and 9-Hole Peg Test (9-HPT), were assessed. Intracranial volume (ICV), subcortical gray matter structures and corpus callosum (CC) were automatically segmented on MRI images and their volumes measured.

Results: BREMSO score correlated negatively with SDMT at visit1 (β = -0.33, p = 0.019), visit2 (β = -0.34, p = 0.017) and visit3 (β = -0.34, p = 0.014), and positively with MSSS at visit1 (r = 0.38, p = 0.006), visit2 (r = 0.47, p < 0.0001) and visit3 (r = 0.42, p = 0.002), but not with T25-FW and 9-HPT. BREMSO negatively correlated with CC volume at baseline (p < 0.03). No correlations were found with ICV and subcortical gray matter.

Conclusions: BREMSO score at onset correlated with physical disability (MSSS), cognitive function (SDMT) and CC volume measurements in patients with early MS.