The predictors of depression in a longitudinal cohort of community dwelling rural adults in Australia.

Purpose: Many major studies of depression in Australia are under-representative of rural and remote residents, limiting the generalizability of their findings. This study explores the contributions of a range of individual, social, and community factors to the trajectory of depressive symptoms among a cohort of rural and remote residents.

Methods: Data from four waves of the Australian Rural Mental Health Study (baseline n = 2639), a 5 year longitudinal study of rural community residents, were examined within generalized linear mixed models to predict depressive symptoms. Depression was measured using the PHQ-9, with key correlates including social support, employment status, financial wellbeing, neuroticism, and rural community factors.

Results: Moderate-to-severe depression was reported by 6.3% of the baseline sample. Being permanently unable to work resulted in over a threefold increase in the odds of depression at the following survey wave. Self-rated financial hardship was associated with a fourfold increase in the odds of future depression, as was a high level of community concerns. Neuroticism and tobacco use also made a significant independent contribution to future depressive symptoms. Interpersonal support was a protective factor, reducing the odds of next-wave depression by 64%.

Conclusion: Financial and employment-related difficulties appear to be important risk factors for depression, and targeting individuals experiencing such difficulties may be an effective means of reducing depression among certain sub-groups. Strategies to prevent depression in rural and remote Australia may benefit from a focus on interpersonal and community-level support, as the effects of this support are lasting and contribute to a reduced likelihood of depressive episodes in future years.