Effect of weight change on progression of knee OA structural features assessed by MRI in overweight and obese women.

Objective: To evaluate the effects of weight change on progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) structural features by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in overweight and obese women without clinical knee OA.

Design: 347 participants from the Prevention of Knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females (PROOF) study were classified with latent class growth analysis into a subgroup with steady weight (n = 260; +0.1 ± 4.0 kg, +0.2 ± 4.4%), weight gain (n = 43; +8.6 ± 4.0 kg, +9.8 ± 4.1%) or weight loss (n = 44; -9.0 ± 7.2 kg, -9.8 ± 7.5%) over 2.5 years. Baseline and follow-up 1.5T MRIs were scored with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) for progression of bone marrow lesions (BMLs), cartilage defects, osteophytes, meniscal abnormalities, meniscal extrusion and synovitis. Associations between subgroups and change in MRI features at knee-level were assessed using adjusted Generalized Estimating Equations.

Results: 687 knees from 347 women (median age 55.2 years, interquartile range (IQR) 5.5, median body mass index (BMI) 31.2 kg/m, IQR 5.3) were analyzed. Progression of synovitis was 18% in the weight gain vs 7% in the stable weight subgroup (OR 2.88; 95%CI 1.39-5.94). The odds for progression of patellofemoral (PF) BMLs and cartilage defects increased with 62% (OR 1.62; 95%CI 0.92-2.84) and 53% (OR 1.53; 95%CI 0.92-2.56) in the weight gain vs the stable weight subgroup.

Conclusions: In overweight and obese women, progression of synovitis increased more than 2.5 times in a weight gain compared to a stable weight subgroup over 2.5 years. Large effect sizes were also found for the difference in progression of PF BMLs and PF cartilage defects between the weight gain and stable weight subgroup.