Non-HDL-cholesterol to HDL-cholesterol ratio is a better predictor of new-onset non-alcoholic fatty liver disease than non-HDL-cholesterol: a cohort study.

Background: The nonHDLc/HDLc ratio (in which nonHDLc is defined as total cholesterol minus HDLc) is positively associated with multiple dyslipidemia-related disorders. This study aimed to determine whether the nonHDLc/HDLc ratio is an independent predictor of new-onset NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) in Chinese population.

Methods: A perspective cohort study consisting of 3374 Chinese adults without liver diseases or metabolic disturbances was performed. Anthropometric parameters and data of metabolic and plasma lipid profile were collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional analyses were carried out to evaluate the association of the nonHDLc/HDLc ratio with incident NAFLD. ROC curve analysis was preformed to compare the predictive value between the nonHDLc/HDLc and the nonHDLc for NAFLD.

Results: Two thousand seven hundred seventeen participants were included in the final analysis. During a median follow-up period of 1.6 years, 264 participants (9.71%) developed NAFLD. After adjustment for potential confounders, a high nonHDLc/HDLc ratio (highest tertile) was associated with elevated risk of NAFLD (HR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.13-6.24; P = 0.025 in female and HR = 2.11; 95% CI, 1.15-3.90; P = 0.016 in male). A nonlinear relationship was observed when the nonHDLc/HDLc ratio was ≤3.5. AUC values for nonHDLc/HDLc ratios (0.717 in female and 0.682 in male) were significantly higher than nonHDLc (0.675 in female and 0.653 in male) (P = 0.049 in female and P = 0.037 in male). In addition, the optimal cut-off value of nonHDLc/HDLc ratio for detection of NAFLD was 2.4 in female and 2.3 in male.

Conclusions: The nonHDLc/HDLc ratio is an independent predictor of NAFLD and a stronger predictor than nonHDLc in Chinese population, which might be expected to better guide early identification of individuals at risk of NAFLD.