Can post encroachment time substitute intersection characteristics in crash prediction models?

Introduction: Transportation safety analyses have traditionally relied on crash data. The limitations of these crash data in terms of timeliness and efficiency are well understood and many studies have explored the feasibility of using alternative surrogate measures for evaluation of road safety. Surrogate safety measures have the potential to estimate crash frequency, while requiring reduced data collection efforts relative to crash data based measures. Traditional crash prediction models use factors such as traffic volume, sight distance, and grade to make risk and exposure estimates that are combined with observed crashes, generally using an Empirical Bayes method, to obtain a final crash estimate. Many surrogate measures have the notable advantage of not directly requiring historical crash data from a site to estimate safety. Post Encroachment Time (PET) is one such measure and represents the time difference between a vehicle leaving the area of encroachment and a conflicting vehicle entering the same area. The exact relationship between surrogate measures, such as PET, and crashes in an ongoing research area.

Method: This paper studies the use of PET to estimate crashes between left-turning vehicles and opposing through vehicles for its ability to predict opposing left-turn crashes. By definition, a PET value of 0 implies the occurrence of a crash and the closer the value of PET is to 0, the higher the conflict risk.

Results: This study shows that a model combining PET and traffic volume characteristic (AADT or conflicting volume) has better predictive power than PET alone. Further, it was found that PET may be capturing the impact of certain other intersection characteristics on safety as inclusion of other intersection characteristics such as sight distance, grade, and other parameters result in only marginal impacts on predictive capacity that do not justify the increased model complexity.