Applicability of a novel mathematical model for the prediction of adult height and age at menarche in girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty.

Objectives: Unfavorable predicted adult height and psychosocial inadequacy represent parameters used to guide therapeutic intervention in girls with central precocious puberty. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog is the first-line treatment. The aim of this study was to compare two methods used to predict adult height and assess a validated tool for predicting the age at menarche in girls with central precocious puberty.

Methods: The predicted adult height of 48 girls with central precocious puberty was calculated at diagnosis using the Bayley-Pinneau method based on average and advanced bone age tables and compared with the predicted adult height calculated using a mathematical model. In addition, the age at spontaneous menarche was predicted using the new formulae. After Gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog treatment, the predicted adult height was calculated using only the Bayley-Pinneau tables.

Results: The achieved adult height was within the target height range in all treated girls with central precocious puberty. At diagnosis, the predicted adult height using the Bayley-Pinneau tables was lower than that using the mathematical model. After the Gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog treatment, the predicted adult height using the Bayley-Pinneau method with the average bone age tables was the closest to the achieved adult height. Using the formulae, the predicted age at spontaneous menarche was 10.1±0.5 yr. The Gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog treatment significantly postponed this event until 11.9±0.7 yr in these "idiopathic" central precocious puberty girls, highlighting the beneficial effect of this treatment.

Conclusion: Both initial adult height prediction methods are limited and must be used with caution. The prediction of the age at spontaneous menarche represents an innovative tool that can help in clinical decisions regarding pubertal suppression.