Risk Factors for Bud Perennation of Podosphaera macularis on Hop.

The hop powdery mildew fungus Podosphaera macularis persists from season to season in the Pacific Northwestern United States through infection of crown buds because only one of the mating types needed to produce the ascigerous stage is presently found in this region. Bud infection and successful overwintering of the fungus leads to the emergence of heavily infected shoots in early spring (termed flag shoots). Historical data of flag shoot occurrence and incidence in Oregon and Washington State during 2000 to 2017 were analyzed to identify their association with the incidence of powdery mildew, growers' use of fungicides, autumn and winter temperature, and other production factors. During this period, flag shoots were found on 0.05% of plants evaluated in Oregon and 0.57% in Washington. In Oregon, the incidence of powdery mildew on leaves was most severe and the number of fungicide applications made by growers greatest in yards where flag shoots were found in spring. Similarly, the incidence of plants with powdery mildew in Washington was significantly associated with the number of flag shoots present in early spring, although the number of fungicide applications made was independent of flag shoot occurrence. The occurrence of flag shoots was associated with prior occurrence of flag shoots in a yard, the incidence of foliar powdery mildew in the previous year, grower pruning method, and, in Washington, winter temperature. A census of hop yards in the eastern extent of the Oregon production region during 2014 to 2017 found flag shoots in 27 of 489 yards evaluated. In yards without flag shoots, 338 yards (73.2%) were chemically pruning or not pruned, whereas the remaining 124 (26.8%) were mechanically pruned. Of the 27 yards with flag shoots, 22 were either chemically pruned or not pruned and 4 were mechanically pruned in mid-April, well after the initial emergence of flag shoots. The prevalence of yards with flag shoots also was related to thoroughness of pruning in spring (8.1% of yards with incomplete pruning versus 1.9% of yards with thorough pruning). A Bayesian logistic regression model was fit to the data from the intensively assessed yards in Oregon, with binary risk factors for occurrence of a flag shoot in the previous year, occurrence of foliar mildew in the previous year, and thoroughness of pruning in spring. The model indicated that the median and 95% highest posterior density interval of the probability of flag shoot occurrence was 0.0008 (0.0000 to 0.0053) when a yard had no risk factors but risk increased to 0.0065 (0.0000 to 0.0283) to 0.43 (0.175 to 0.709) when one to all three of the risk factors were present. The entirety of this research indicates that P. macularis appears to persist in a subset of chronically affected hop yards, particularly yards where spring pruning is conducted poorly. Targeted management of the disease in a subset of fields most at risk for producing flag shoots could potentially influence powdery mildew development regionwide.