[Scenario Analyses of the Volatile Organic Compound Emission Allowance and Allocation in the 13th Five-Year Period].

China implemented the emission allowance and allocation strategy in 2016 to achieve effective control of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). An inventory of VOCs emissions for 2015 and future emissions for 2020 were developed and predicted, respectively, using emission factors and regression analysis. The results showed that anthropogenic VOCs emission in 2015 was 31117.0 kt. VOCs emission in 2020 under the business-as-usual scenario is predicted to be 41737.2 kt, an increase of 34.13% from that in 2015. Based on the Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan, a total amount control target and pollution reduction task of about 28005.3 kt and 13731.9 kt, respectively, were proposed. Additionally, three control scenarios, i.e., implementing VOCs emission reduction strategies in all the key areas, in all the key industries, and in the key industries of the key areas, were established for the 13th Five-Year Plan using a scenario analysis method. The results showed that some differences exist between the potential mitigation of VOCs emissions and the emission reduction target for the three control scenarios, it is difficult to realize the emission allowance target. It is necessary to devote greater efforts to control VOCs. Moreover, reducing emissions of VOCs by implementing large-scale control projects is recommended. Further, regulation of VOC emissions in key areas and industries should be emphasized.