Prognostic Factors in Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Glomerulonephritis with Severe Glomerular Sclerosis: A National Registry-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Classification of patients with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN) into histological classes is useful for predicting a patient's risk of progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, even in the worst prognostic group, the 5-year end-stage renal disease-free survival rate is as high as 50%.

Objectives: To investigate those prognostic factors indicative of progression to ESRD in patients with ANCA-GN and sclerosing histology.

Methods: Patients from the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry between 1991 and 2012 who had biopsy verified pauci-immune glomerulonephritis, positive ANCA serology, and sclerosing histology were included. Cases with ESRD during follow-up were identified via linkage with the Norwegian Renal Registry. Potential prognostic factors with relevant cut-offs were compared in patients with and without progression to ESRD during follow-up.

Results: Of 23 included patients, 10 progressed to ESRD. ESRD patients had a lower initial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; 21 versus 52 ml/min/1.73 m) and a lower percentage of normal glomeruli (4% versus 15%). Five-year risks of ESRD with eGFR >15 versus ≤15 ml/min/1.73 m were 77% and 15%, with percentage normal glomeruli >10% versus ≤10%, 83% and 39%.

Conclusions: eGFR and percentage of normal glomeruli are strong risk factors for ESRD in ANCA-GN with sclerosing histology.