[Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of Cadmium in Soil-rice System Based on Uncertainty Analysis].

Cadmium (Cd) can cause adverse health effects and is a subject of concern in rice consumption. The uncertainty analysis helps improve the accuracy in the risk assessment for Cd in soil-rice system. A regional investigation on Youxian prefecture, southern China, was conducted to analyze the Cd concentration in rice. Based on the species sensitivity distribution model (SSD), health risk assessment model, and Monte Carlo simulation, the accumulation characteristic of Cd in soil-rice system, accumulation risk of Cd in soil, and health risk of Cd concentration in rice were determined. The results showed that the plant uptake factor (PUF) of Cd of rice was well fitted by the SSD model. The mean level of PUF was 1.86, with a significant spatial heterogeneity. The rice produced in WL county tended to accumulate a high level of Cd. There was no significant relationship between concentrations of Cd in soil and rice, suggesting that of rice renders the Cd risk management very difficult. The pollution load index of Cd in soil was 2.4, which belonged to a moderate contamination level. Under current accumulation condition of Cd in soil, there would be a 90.4% probability for soil Cd concentration to be higher than the national soil quality standard after 10 years. Health risk assessment showed that the average daily dose (ADD) was 2.9 μg·(kg·d), 3.5 fold higher than the WHO limit. About 93.9% of the adult populations consuming rice cropping in affected areas had the risk that the daily Cd intake was above the WHO limit. The health risk index (HRI) was around 2.1 to 4.7. The probability for health risk index (HRI) higher than 5 was 21.5%, suggesting a high health risk. When the soil pH was lower than 5.5, the probability for HRI higher than 1 was 95.3%, and when the soil pH was higher than 6, the probability for HRI higher than 1 reduced to 68.1%. An improved management of soil pH values would be needed for a better and safer rice production. The combination of uncertainty analysis, species sensitivity model and health risk assessment model was validated to be feasible and reliable in the risk analysis.