Extracellular volume fraction determined by equilibrium contrast-enhanced multidetector computed tomography as a prognostic factor in unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated with chemotherapy.

Objectives: To assess whether extracellular volume (ECV) fraction with equilibrium contrast-enhanced multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) predicts outcomes for unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients treated with chemotherapy METHODS: Sixty-seven patients (42 men, 25 women; mean age, 67.5 years; range, 45-83 years) with histologically confirmed surgically unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma underwent contrast-enhanced MDCT before systemic chemotherapy. Tumour contrast enhancement (CE) and ECV fraction were calculated using region-of-interest measurement within the pancreatic adenocarcinoma and aorta on unenhanced and equilibrium phase-enhanced CT. The effect on survival variables including age, sex, tumour location, tumour size, TNM stage, carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), tumour CE and tumour ECV fraction was determined on univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Results: Median overall survival was 10.5 months. On univariate analysis, elevated serum CA19-9 (hazard ratio (HR), 1.00; p = 0.006) and CEA (HR, 1.02; p = 0.011) levels were found to be associated with a negative effect on overall survival. Increasing tumour CE (HR, 0.98; p < 0.001) and ECV fraction (HR, 0.97; p = 0.001) were associated with a positive effect. Multivariate analysis revealed that only tumour ECV fraction was an independent predictor of overall survival (HR, 0.97; p = 0.012).

Conclusions: ECV fraction with equilibrium contrast-enhanced MDCT could be a useful imaging biomarker for predicting patient survival after chemotherapy for unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Key Points: • Tumour aggressiveness and response to therapy are influenced by the extravascular extracellular space. • Extracellular volume (ECV) fraction can be quantified with equilibrium contrast-enhanced CT. • Patients with higher tumour ECV fraction had better prognosis after chemotherapy.