Predictive risk model for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus type 2 in a follow-up study 15 years on: PRODI2 Study.

Background: The prevalence and mortality related to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) have increased consistently for decades. Identifying adults at high risk of diabetes incidence is important for the execution of intervention.

Methods: The participants in the PRODI2 study (n=273), who come from the southeast of Spain and did not have diabetes at the start of the study, were followed for 15 years (1999-2014), and their risk parameters were measured, from which a predictive model was obtained which indicates the level of influence of each factor in the development of DM2. The expected risk of diabetes was calculated by binary logistic regression.

Results: Those participants whose father has suffered an acute myocardial infarction are 3.9 times more likely to develop DM2 (confidence interval 95%: 1.498, 10.339); those with at least one parent who has a history of diabetes are 2.7 times more at risk (confidence interval 95%: 1.224, 6.101); the risk of being diabetic was 1.13 times higher for every extra unit on the waist-hip ratio (confidence interval 95%: 1.073, 1.195), and for the hip perimeter an OR of 0.93 was obtained (confidence interval 95%: 0.876, 0.982). Statistically significant differences were observed in all cases (P<0.05).

Conclusion: This study shows that the risk of being diabetic rises in patients whose father has suffered an acute myocardial infarction, in those whose mother or father is diabetic and in patients with a high waist perimeter.