AI Article Synopsis
- Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic is raising concerns about oil spill risks, particularly due to the area's ecological sensitivity.
- To evaluate these risks effectively, there's a need for data on the vulnerability of key species like seals, ducks (anatids), and seabirds, which is often lacking in the region.
- A probabilistic expert elicitation method was used to assess the impact of oil spills on these groups, revealing that younger animals are more affected, impacts vary with seasons and oil types, and heavier oils cause the most harm, although recruiting enough knowledgeable experts was a challenge.
Article Abstract
Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076 | DOI Listing |
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