Early increases in serum FGF21 levels predict mortality of septic patients.

Background: Potential prognostic biomarkers for patients with sepsis have yet to be identified. The present study evaluated the prognostic value of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels in patients with sepsis.

Methods: A total of 120 consecutive Chinese patients with sepsis were prospectively included, and serum levels of FGF21 and biomarkers such as interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), IL-10, procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and lactate (LAC) were measured within 24 h after intensive care unit admission. The demographic and clinical characteristics including underlying diseases, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (△SOFA), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were recorded. Patients were categorized into survival and non-survival groups according to the 28-day mortality. Correlations between FGF21, serum indicators, severity score and 28-day mortality were analyzed, and Cox regression analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off of FGF21 for survival prediction.

Results: Non-survivors had significantly higher levels of FGF21, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, PCT, CRP, and LAC as well as higher SOFA and APACHE II scores compared with the survivors. FGF21 levels were positively correlated with age, waist circumference, levels of IL-6, IL-10, TNF- α, PCT, CRP, and LAC, △SOFA and APACHE II scores. ROC curves showed that FGF21 had a high sensitivity of 81.3% and specificity of 89.8% for predicting 28-day mortality. Patients with a FGF21 levels <3200 pg/ml had a significantly better survival rate than those with levels >3200 pg/ml, and thus, FGF21 was an independent prognostic factor for survival.

Conclusion: FGF21 could serve as a new prognostic biomarker for sepsis survival.