Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX.

Background: The international invasive and quarantined defoliating insect Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) causes huge ecological and economic losses in the world. Furthermore, future climate change may alter the distribution of H. cunea and aggravate the damage. In the present study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of H. cunea according to both historical climate data (1961-1990) and future climate warming estimates (2011-2100) to define the impact of climate change.

Results: Under the historical climate scenario, we found that H. cunea can survive on every continent, and temperature is the main factor that limits its establishment. With climate change, suitability will increase in middle and high latitude regions, while decrease in the low latitude regions. Moreover, tropic regions will be the most sensitive to climate change impacts for the pest to survive. The impacts of climate change will also increase over time, whether they be positive impacts or negative impacts.

Conclusion: The projected potential distributions provide a theoretical basis for quarantine and control strategies for the management of this pest in each country. Furthermore, these results provide substantial guidance for studies of the effects of climate change on other major forest pests. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.