Co-evolutionary dynamics of the human-environment system in the Heihe River basin in the past 2000years.

There is limited quantitative understanding of interactions between human and environmental systems over the millennial scale. We aim to reveal the co-evolutionary dynamics of the human-environment system in a river basin by simulating the water use and net primary production (NPP) allocation for human and environmental systems over the last 2000years in Heihe River basin (HRB) in northwest China. We partition the catchment total evapotranspiration (ET) into ET for human and environmental systems with a social-hydrological framework and estimate the NPP for human and environmental systems using the Box-Lieth model, then classify the co-evolutionary processes of the human-environment system into distinct phases using the rate of changes of NPP over time, and discover the trade-offs or synergies relationships between them based on the elasticity of change of the NPP for humans to the change of NPP for environment. The co-evolutionary dynamics of human-environment system in the HRB can be divided into four periods, including: Phase I (Han Dynasty-Yuan Dynasty): predevelopment characterized by nearly no trade-offs between human and environment; Phase II (Yuan Dynasty-RC): slow agricultural development: characterized by a small human win due to small trade-offs between human and environment; Phase III (RC-2000): rapid agricultural development: characterized by a large human win due to large trade-offs between human and environment, and Phase IV (2000-2010): a rebalance characterized by large human wins with a small-environment win due to synergies, although these occurred very occasionally. This study provides a quantitative approach to describe the co-evolution of the human-environment system from the perspective of trade-offs and synergies in the millennial scale for the first time. The relationships between humans and environment changed from trade-off to synergy with the implementation of the water reallocation scheme in 2000. These findings improve the understanding of how humans influence environmental systems and responses to environmental stresses.