Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain model.

Background: The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated.

Methods: A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model.

Results: In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age.

Conclusions: Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history.