Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

PLoS One

Department of Information & Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Published: July 2018

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5890978PMC
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194723PLOS

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

interest diffusion
16
web search
12
search traffic
12
technology diffusion
12
sales hybrid
12
hybrid cars
12
industrial robots
12
diffusion
10
diffusion technology
8
diffusion interest
8

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!