The effectiveness of child restraint and seat belt legislation in reducing child injuries: The case of Serbia.

Objective: The objective of this study is to determine the short- and long-term impacts of Serbia's 2009 update of child restraint and seat belt legislation on the incidence of pediatric motor vehicle-related injury. With this new law, the use of child restraints in children age 0-3 became mandatory, and children 4-12 had to wear seat belts in the rear seats.

Methods: A unique data set with assembled information from public institutions of the Republic of Serbia from January 2004 to December 2014 and analyses based on interrupted time series were carried out. Eight outcome variables were assessed: monthly rate of injured children for 2 age groups 0-3 and 4-12 per child population, number of registered motor vehicles, number of passengers transported, and number of passengers' kilometers traveled. Independent variables were short- and long-term impacts of Serbia's legislation update (June 2009). Data on injuries were obtained from Serbia's Road Traffic Safety Agency. Child population and other transport-related data were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. We excluded fatalities from the analysis.

Results: In the first year of the updated legislation there was a reduction of 2.0% (confidence interval [CI], 0.1; 3.9) of injured children aged 0-3 and a reduction of 2.5% (CI, 0.6; 4.3) of injured children aged 4-12. Six years after enactment of the legislation, a significant reduction of 8.2% (CI, 3.5; 13.0) of injured children aged 4-12 was observed, but a nonsignificant reduction of 1.1% (CI, -5.8; 3.5) was found for injured children aged 0-3. By December 2014, 369 (CI, 186; 555) injuries among children aged 4-12 were avoided.

Conclusions: The case of Serbia suggests that the new law was effective in reducing injuries among children aged 0-3 in the short term and injuries among children aged 4-12 in both the short term and long term. To understand these results, we suggest 2 hypotheses. First, low proper usage of child restraint and weak police enforcement were likely to explain the short-term effect among children aged 0-3. Second, access to seat belts in rear seats was probably a condition that facilitated the use of these devices among children aged 4-12, protecting them during the period of the study.