Anti-viral therapy can be delayed or avoided in a significant proportion of HBeAg-negative Caucasian patients in the Grey Zone.

Background: Grey Zone (GZ) is an ill-defined situation including patients falling between inactive carrier (IC) state and HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (HBeAg-negative CHB).

Aims: To assess the long-term outcomes of GZ patients compared to IC in the absence of treatment.

Methods: Retrospective analysis of 287 IC and GZ HBeAg-negative patients. Patients were classified into 4 groups at baseline: HBV-DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L (IC), HBV-DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT 40-80 U/L (GZ-1), HBV-DNA 2000-20 000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L (GZ-2) or ALT 40-80 U/L (GZ-3). Data were also analysed using AASLD ALT criteria.

Results: After a median follow-up of 8.2 (5-19) years, HBsAg loss occurred in about 15% ICs or GZ patients. Transition into IC state occurred in 40% of GZ patients. DNA fluctuations >2000 IU/mL correlated inversely with transition into IC and HBsAg loss. HBsAg levels were significantly lower in ICs than in GZ patients (338 IU/mL [20-3269] vs 5763 IU/mL [2172-17 754]; P < 0.05). Among the latter group, there was an increasing gradient of HBsAg levels from GZ-1 to GZ-3 patients (P < 0.05). HBeAg-negative CHB occurred in only 18 (6.3%) GZ patients. No patient developed cirrhosis nor advanced fibrosis. ALT/HBV-DNA fluctuations and HBeAg-negative CHB development were more frequent in genotype B/C patients, whereas HBsAg loss occurred only in genotype A/D patients.

Conclusions: Most Caucasian GZ patients present excellent long-term outcomes in the absence of treatment, with a high rate of HBsAg loss and low rate of progression to HBeAg-negative CHB. HBV-genotyping and HBsAg levels could help to predict outcomes and better classify GZ patients.