Objective: To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks).
Methods: This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school.
Results: The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive.
Conclusion: Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7113490 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0300060518764268 | DOI Listing |
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