Modeling the impact of crop rotation with legume on nitrous oxide emissions from rain-fed agricultural systems in Australia under alternative future climate scenarios.

Limited information exists on potential impacts of climate change on nitrous oxide (NO) emissions by including N-fixing legumes in crop rotations from rain-fed cropping systems. Data from two 3-yr crop rotations in northern NSW, Australia, viz. chickpea-wheat-barley (CpWB) and canola-wheat-barley (CaWB), were used to gain an insight on the role of legumes in mitigation of NO emissions. High-frequency NO fluxes measured with an automated system of static chambers were utilized to test the applicability of Denitrification and Decomposition model. The DNDC model was run using the on-site observed weather, soil and farming management conditions as well as the representative concentration pathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report. The DNDC model captured the cumulative NO emissions with variations falling within the deviation ranges of observations (0.88±0.31kgNharotation for CpWB, 1.44±0.02kgNharotation for CaWB). The DNDC model can be used to predict between modeled and measured NO flux values for CpWB (n=390, RSR=0.45) and CaWB (n=390, RSR=0.51). Long-term (80-yr) simulations were conducted with RCP 4.5 representing a global greenhouse gas stabilization scenario, as well RCP 8.5 representing a very high greenhouse gas emission scenario based on RCP scenarios. Compared with the baseline scenarios for CpWB and CaWB, the long-term simulation results under RCP scenarios showed that, (1) NO emissions would increase by 35-44% for CpWB and 72-76% for CaWB under two climate scenarios; (2) grain yields would increase by 9% and 18% under RCP 4.5, and 2% and 14% under RCP 8.5 for CpWB and CaWB, respectively; and (3) yield-scaled NO-N emission would increase by 24-42% for CpWB and 46-54% for CaWB under climate scenarios, respectively. Our results suggest that 25% of the yield-scaled NO-N emission would be saved by switching to a legume rotation under climate change conditions.