An ensemble boosting model for predicting transfer to the pediatric intensive care unit.

Background: Early deterioration indicators have the potential to alert hospital care staff in advance of adverse events, such as patients requiring an increased level of care, or the need for rapid response teams to be called. Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit.

Objectives: The development of a data-driven pediatric early deterioration indicator for use by clinicians with the purpose of predicting encounters where transfer from the general ward to the PICU is likely.

Methods: Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop machine learning classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree boosting. We further combine these learned classifiers into an ensemble model and compare its performance to a modified pediatric early warning score (PEWS) baseline that relies on expert defined guidelines. To gauge model generalizability, we perform an inter-facility evaluation where we train our algorithm on data from one facility and perform evaluation on a hidden test dataset from a separate facility.

Results: We show that improvements are witnessed over the modified PEWS baseline in accuracy (0.77 vs. 0.69), sensitivity (0.80 vs. 0.68), specificity (0.74 vs. 0.70) and AUROC (0.85 vs. 0.73).

Conclusions: Data-driven, machine learning algorithms can improve PICU transfer prediction accuracy compared to expertly defined systems, such as a modified PEWS, but care must be taken in the training of such approaches to avoid inadvertently introducing bias into the outcomes of these systems.