[Risk assessment of secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province].

Objective: To assess the risk of secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province, so as to provide the evidence for adjustment of malaria surveillance strategies in the key groups and areas.

Methods: The Delphi method was used to establish the secondary transmission risk indicator system and the weight of each index was obtained. The data of malaria prevalence, vector distribution and intervention capacity were collected in 100 counties of Jiangxi Province from 2012 to 2015. The transmission potential index (TPI), intervention capacity index (ICI), and malaria risk index (MRI) were calculated for each county. The risk map was drawn with GIS software.

Results: The top ten counties with highly potential risk indicators were Linchuan District (2.131), Xinzhou District (1.609), Jiujiang County (1.404), Zhanggong District (1.365), Fengcheng City (1.225), Qingshanhu District (1.184), Yudu County (1.171), Dingnan County (1.018), Xunyang District (1.015) and Zhushan District (1.006). The high risk areas were mainly distributed in the regions of the capitals of their prefectures and in counties with more floating population.

Conclusions: There are the risk of the secondary transmission induced by imported malaria in Jiangxi Province. The high risk of the secondary transmission is shown in the areas with more floating population and weaker intervention capacity.