[Temporal and spatial distribution of infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014].

Objective: To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of infection of population and its risk factors in Eastern Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014, so as to provide the reference for formulating effective intervention measures.

Methods: Junshan District was selected as a study field in Eastern Dongting Lake area. The method of spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to analyze the change of spatial distribution of infection in Junshan District in 2012 and 2014. The spatial regression model was fitted to detect the risk factors for human infection.

Results: The livestock infection rate in 2013 was lower than that in 2011. The average infection rate of schistosome was reduced to 0.55% in 2014. The spatial autocorrelation existed on the distribution of schistosomiasis in Junshan District in both 2012 and 2014 and 4 high incidence villages were identified. The results of the spatial error model showed that the prevalence of human infection was positively correlated with the infection rate of the livestock and the area of the susceptible environment in 2012. The spatial lag model showed that the prevalence of human schistosomiasis was positively correlated with the area of the susceptible environment, but not with the infection rate of livestock.

Conclusions: The measures involving grazing prohibition and phasing out cattle and sheep are remarkably effective and should continue on the basis of the current spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in this area.