A qualitative signature for predicting pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancers.

Background And Purpose: The standard therapy for locally advanced rectal cancers (LARCs) is neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) followed by surgical resection. Pathological response to nCRT varies among patients, and it remains a challenge to predict pathological response to nCRT in LARCs.

Material And Methods: Using 42 samples as the training cohort, we searched a signature by screening the gene pairs whose within-sample relative expression orderings are significantly correlated with the pathological response. The signature was validated in both a public cohort of 46 samples and a cohort of 33 samples measured at our laboratory.

Results: A signature consisting of 27 gene pairs was identified in the training cohort with an accuracy of 92.86% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95. The accuracy was 89.13% for the public test cohort and 90.91% for the private test cohort, with AUC being 0.95 and 0.91, respectively. Furthermore, the signature was used to predict disease-free survival benefits from 5Fu-based chemotherapy in 285 locally advanced colorectal cancers.

Conclusions: The signature consisting of 27 gene pairs can robustly predict clinical response of LARCs to nCRT.