Next wave of interventions to reduce under-five mortality in Rwanda: a cross-sectional analysis of demographic and health survey data.

Background: Sustained investments in Rwanda's health system have led to historic reductions in under five (U5) mortality. Although Rwanda achieved an estimated 68% decrease in the national under U5 mortality rate between 2002 and 2012, according to the national census, 5.8% of children still do not reach their fifth birthday, requiring the next wave of child mortality prevention strategies.

Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of 9002 births to 6328 women age 15-49 in the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey. We tested bivariate associations between 29 covariates and U5 mortality, retaining covariates with an odds ratio p < 0.1 for model building. We used manual backward stepwise logistic regression to identify correlates of U5 mortality in all children U5, 0-11 months, and 12-59 months. Analyses were performed in Stata v12, adjusting for complex sample design.

Results: Of 14 covariates associated with U5 mortality in bivariate analysis, the following remained associated with U5 mortality in multivariate analysis: household being among the poorest of the poor (OR = 1.98), child being a twin (OR = 2.40), mother having 3-4 births in the past 5 years (OR = 3.97) compared to 1-2 births, mother being HIV positive (OR = 2.27), and mother not using contraceptives (OR = 1.37) compared to using a modern method (p < 0.05 for all). Mother experiencing physical or sexual violence in the last 12 months was associated with U5 mortality in children ages 1-4 years (OR = 1.48, p < 0.05). U5 survival was associated with a preceding birth interval 25-50 months (OR = 0.67) compared to 9-24 months, and having a mosquito net (OR = 0.46) (p < 0.05 for both).

Conclusions: In the past decade, Rwanda rolled out integrated management of childhood illness, near universal coverage of childhood vaccinations, a national community health worker program, and a universal health insurance scheme. Identifying factors that continue to be associated with childhood mortality supports determination of which interventions to strengthen to reduce it further. This study suggests that Rwanda's next wave of U5 mortality reduction should target programs in improving neonatal outcomes, poverty reduction, family planning, HIV services, malaria prevention, and prevention of intimate partner violence.