In this paper, a mathematical model describing the transmission of two-strain Dengue virus between mosquitoes and humans, incorporating vector control and awareness of susceptible humans, is proposed. By using the next generation matrix method, we obtain the threshold values to identify the existence and stability of three equilibria states, that is, a disease-free state, a state where only one serotype is present and another state where both serotypes coexist. Further, explicit conditions determining the persistence of this disease are also obtained. In addition, we investigate the sensitivity analysis of threshold conditions and the optimal control strategy for this disease. Theoretical results and numerical simulations suggest that the measures of enhancing awareness of the infected and susceptible human self-protection should be taken and the mosquito control measure is necessary in order to prevent the transmission of Dengue virus from mosquitoes to humans.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.017 | DOI Listing |
J Biol Dyn
December 2021
Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
We introduce a compartmental host-vector model for dengue with two viral strains, temporary cross-immunity for the hosts, and possible secondary infections. We study the conditions on existence of endemic equilibria where one strain displaces the other or the two virus strains co-exist. Since the host and vector epidemiology follow different time scales, the model is described as a slow-fast system.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ R Soc Interface
June 2020
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFInt J Environ Res Public Health
March 2019
Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea.
In this work, a two-strain dengue model with vertical transmission in the mosquito population is considered. Although vertical transmission is often ignored in models of dengue fever, we show that effective control of an outbreak of dengue can depend on whether or not the vertical transmission is a significant mode of disease transmission. We model the effect of a control strategy aimed at reducing human-mosquito transmissions in an optimal control framework.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEpidemics
March 2019
Institut de biologie de l'Ecole normale supérieure (IBENS), Ecole normale supérieure, CNRS, INSERM, PSL Research University, 75005 Paris, France; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Génomique évolutive, modélisation et santé, UMR 2000, 75724 Paris cedex 15, France; International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), UMI 209 UPMC/IRD, Bondy cedex, France. Electronic address:
Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separately the importance of these factors in models, we combined surveillance data with a local-scale cluster study in the rural province of Kampong Cham (Cambodia), in which serotypes and asymptomatic infections were documented.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
December 2018
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea.
Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration.
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