Using Controlled Substance Receipt Patterns to Predict Prescription Overdose Death.

Background: This study evaluates complete state data from controlled substance prescribing trends in the prescription monitoring program (PMP) database and their association with the risk of prescription drug overdose death.

Summary: Maine PMP records of individuals who died of prescription overdose deaths between 2006 and 2010 were selected (n = 690). For each subject, an age, gender, and residence matched cohort of PMP users in a 50: 1 ratio was identified (n = 34,500). Key Messages: Prescription opioids contributed to 480 of 690 prescription deaths, many co-ingestions were noted, and OR for overdose death increased with milligram of morphine equivalent (MME)/day >100. The majority who were prescribed MME >100 per day received a prescription within 90 days of overdose matching the toxicology cause of death.

Conclusions: Medication profiles available through state PMP can identify dosing of prescriptions associated with drug overdose death.