[Effect of demographic changes on the case rate and days of care for hospitalized internal medicine patients].

Using case categories at the Center for Internal Medicine of the Medical University at Lübeck and predictions of future population trends by the German Federal Statistical Office, likely future numbers of inpatients and days of hospital stay were calculated. Assuming other conditions remaining constant, an annual rise of 0.9% of medical cases is to be expected until the year 2005. An increase above this average is expected for cases of cardiovascular and respiratory disease and of malignant neoplasms, while it will be below average for renal or gastrointestinal diseases. These data are similar to comparable projections made, on the basis of Federal statistics, of hospital cases registered with local health insurance schemes. In addition they indicate an increase of 3% for all non-paediatric admissions up to 2005.