Background: Funding for substance misuse services comprises one-third of Public Health spend in England. The current allocation formula contains adjustments for actual activity, performance and need, proxied by the Standardized Mortality Ratio for under-75s (SMR < 75). Additional measures, such as deprivation, may better identify differential service need.
Methods: We developed an age-standardized and an age-stratified model (over-18s, under-18s), with the outcome of expected/actual cost at postal sector/Local Authority level. A third, person-based model incorporated predictors of costs at the individual level. Each model incorporated both needs and supply variables, with the relative effects of their inclusion assessed.
Results: Mean estimated annual cost (2013/14) per English Local Authority area was £5 032 802 (sd: 3 951 158). Costs for drug misuse treatment represented the majority (83%) of costs. Models achieved adjusted R-squared values of 0.522 (age-standardized), 0.533 (age-stratified over-18s), 0.232 (age-stratified under-18s) and 0.470 (person-based).
Conclusion: Improvements can be made to the existing resource allocation formulae to better reflect population need. The person-based model permits inclusion of a range of needs variables, in addition to strong predictors of cost based on the receipt of treatment in the previous year. Adoption of this revised person-based formula for substance misuse would shift resources towards more deprived areas.
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