Early prediction of persistent organ failure by serum apolipoprotein A-I and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Background: Early identification of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients at high-risk of developing persistent organ failure (persistent OF) is a vital clinical goal. This research intends to assess the ability of apolipoprotein A-I (APO A-I) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) to predict persistent OF.

Methods: Between January 2011 and September 2016, a total of 102 adult AP patients with organ failure, local complications or deterioration of former comorbidities disease during hospitalization were included in this study retrospectively. Serum lipids were tested and computed the correlation with clinical outcomes or scoring systems. The AUCs to predict persistent OF were also calculated and compared with each other.

Results: Serum APO A-I and HDL-C levels were negatively associated with scoring systems. Meanwhile, serum lipids were negatively correlated with poor clinical outcomes. The AUCs of APO A-I, HDL-C, the combination of APO A-I and BISAP, or the combination of APO A-I and MCTSI to predict persistent OF among Moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients were 0.886, 0.811, 0.912, and 0.900 or among those with organ failure were 0.915, 0.859, 0.933, and 0.933, respectively.

Conclusions: The concentrations of APO A-I, HDL-C, and the combinations of APO A-I and scoring systems have high predictive value to predict persistent OF.