Trading Equality for Health? Evaluating the Trade-off and Institutional Hypotheses on Health Inequalities in the Global South.

It has been suggested that as medicine advances and mortality declines, socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes will grow. Yet, most research on this topic uses data from affluent Western democracies, where mortality is declining in small increments. We argue that the Global South represents the ideal setting to study this issue in a context of rapid mortality decline. We evaluate two competing hypotheses: (1) there is a trade-off between population health and health inequality such that reductions in under-five mortality are linked to higher levels of social inequality in health; and (2) institutional interventions that improve under-five mortality, like the expansion of educational systems and public health expenditure, are associated with reductions in inequalities. We test these hypotheses using data on 1,369,050 births in 34 low-income countries in the Demographic and Health Surveys from 1995 to 2012. The results show little evidence of a health-for-equality trade-off and instead support the institutional hypothesis.