Sustainability of mega water diversion projects: Experience and lessons from China.

Water availability and water demand are not evenly distributed in time and space. Many mega water diversion projects have been launched to alleviate water shortages in China. This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial features of 59 mega water diversion projects in China using statistical analysis. The relationship between nine major basins is measured using a network analysis method, and the associated economic, environmental and social impacts are explored using an impact analysis method. The study finds the development of water diversion has experienced four stages in China, from a starting period through to a period of high-speed development. Both the length of water diversion channels and the amount of transferred water have increased significantly in the past 50years. As of 2015, over 100billionm of water was transferred in China through 16,000km in channels. These projects reached over half of China's provinces. The Yangtze River Basin is now the largest source of transferred water. Through inter-basin water diversion, China gains the opportunity to increase Gross Domestic Product by 4%. However, the construction costs exceed 150 billion US dollars, larger than in any other country. The average cost per unit of transferred water has increased with time and scale but decreased from western to eastern China. Furthermore, annual total energy consumption for pumping exceeded 50billionkilowatt-hours and the related greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to be 48milliontons. It is worth noting that ecological problems caused by water diversion affect the Han River and Yellow River Basins. Over 500 thousand people have been relocated away from their homes due to water diversion. To improve the sustainability of water diversion, four kinds of innovative measures have been provided for decision makers: national diversion guidelines, integrated water basin management, economic incentives and ex-post evaluation.