[Admission test to the degree course in Medicine and Surgery and university career: the experience in the campuses of Piedmont Region (Northern Italy)].

Objectives: to consider the admission test to the degree course in Medicine and Surgery in the three campus of Piedmont Region (Northern Italy) in order to discuss the ability of this test to predict the academic outcome of the students.

Design: cohort study considering all the students enrolled in the first year of medicine during the academic year 2014-2015. Their academic career is monitored during the period January 2015-February 2016.

Setting And Participants: a total of 781 students is considered and divided into two groups: regular (registered after passing the admission test; n. 605) and TAR (registered after court decision and having won the case in tribunal; n. 176).

Main Outcome Measures: the study is based on three indicators of performance: A1. at least one of the required exams in the first year passed; A2. at least half of the required exams in the first year passed; A3. all the exams required in the first year passed. Statistical analyses are based on: positive predictive value and relative 95% confidence interval; odds ratio and relative 95% confidence intervals, adjusted by sex, age, high school type, and vote estimated by logistic regression models.

Results: the results highlight the good prediction of the admission test that remains significant even after adjustment for the confounding factors considered.

Conclusions: the major limits are the short period of observation and the restricted number of campus considered. However, this analysis confirms the importance of the admission test. In fact, students with low scores in the test could show serious disadvantages in passing the exams (in the appointed time) in the first year.