Prevalence of neovascular age-related macular degeneration and geographic atrophy in Denmark.

Introduction: In Denmark, age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common cause of blindness. To better understand current and future challenges, we estimated and projected the annual number of patients with neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in Denmark from 2016 to 2060.

Methods: Detailed age- and gender-stratified prevalence estimates of neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in a Scandinavian population were identified and applied to age- and gender-stratified population numbers provided by Statistics Denmark. Prevalence estimates were calculated for each year from 2016 to 2060. Future forecasts were provided by Statistics Denmark and based on calculations by the Danish Institute for Economic Modelling and Forecasting.

Results: We estimated that there are currently ~30,000 patients with neovascular AMD and ~21,000 patients with geographic atrophy in Denmark. The majority of these patients are persons aged ≥ 85 years. For neovascular AMD, the number of patients will grow to ~33,000 in 2020, ~58,000 in 2040 and ~72,000 in 2060. For geographic atrophy, the number of patients will grow to ~23,000 in 2020, ~41,000 in 2040, and ~50,000 in 2060.

Conclusions: We expect a steady growth in the prevalence of neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in Denmark due to an ageing population. These numbers emphasise the importance of disease prevention, careful planning of health service activities and continuing research.

Funding: none.

Trial Registration: not relevant.