Development of a storm surge driven water quality model to simulate spills during hurricanes.

Hurricanes can cause widespread environmental pollution that has yet to be fully articulated. This study develops a predictive water quality model to forecast potential contamination resulting from buckled or ruptured storage tanks in coastal industrialized areas when subjected to storm surge. The developed EFDC-Storm Surge model (EFDC-SS) couples EPA's EFDC code with the SWAN-ADCIRC hurricane simulation model. EFDC-SS is demonstrated using the Houston Ship Channel in Texas as a testbed and hurricane Ike as a model hurricane. Conservative and decaying dye runs evaluated various hurricane scenarios, combined with spills released at different locations and release times. Results showed that tank locations with shorter distances to the main waterbody and lower ground elevations have a higher risk of inundation and rapid spill mass transport. It was also determined that hurricane strength and landfall location, the location of the spill, and the spill release time relative to peak surge were interdependent.