Prognostic value of disability on mortality: 15-year follow-up of the Bambuí cohort study of aging.

Arch Gerontol Geriatr

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, René Rachou Research Institute, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Federal University of Minas Gerais, Nursing School, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Electronic address:

Published: January 2018

AI Article Synopsis

  • Disability significantly impacts the need for long-term care and survival rates in older adults, particularly in a diverse, socioeconomically disadvantaged Brazilian population.
  • The study analyzed data from 1,333 individuals aged 60 and over, using Cox proportional hazards models to assess the effect of mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and basic activities of daily living (BADL) disabilities on mortality over 15 years.
  • Results indicated a higher mortality rate, especially among men, with increased risk associated with disabilities in mobility and daily activities, confirming that these disability domains are reliable predictors of all-cause mortality among older adults.

Article Abstract

Background: Disability is a concern in the context of population ageing. The extent of an individual's disability is a major determinant of whether or not they require long-term care or survival time. We investigated the effect of three disability domains as predictors of all-cause mortality over 15-year follow-up in a Brazilian socioeconomically disadvantaged and multiracial older adult population.

Methods: We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using data from 1333 community-dwelling individuals aged 60 and older from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing. Disability was defined as a great difficulty or not being able to perform one and two or more activities in each domain: mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (BADL).

Results: The overall mortality rate was 46.1 per 1000 person-years at risk (pyrs) and it was higher in men. Among men, the fully adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) were 1.92 (95%CI: 1.43-2.58), 2.07 (95%CI: 1.53-2.79) and 1.65 (95%CI: 1.11-2.45), and among women 1.75 (95%CI: 1.38-2.21), 1.43 (95%CI: 1.11-1.84) and 1.43 (95%CI: 1.05-1.95), for two or more disability in mobility tasks, IADLs and BADLs, respectively, compared to those with no difficulty or some difficulty to perform all the tasks.

Conclusion: A similar risk of death for mobility, IADL and BADL in both genders was found, suggesting that any of these domains can be used to identify risk of all-cause mortality among older adults. The number of activities with limitations in each domain was an important factor.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2017.10.011DOI Listing

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