Cumulative incidence of Kawasaki disease in Japan.

Background: Although the incidence rates of Kawasaki disease (KD) in Japan have been determined in nationwide surveys, the cumulative incidence, that is, the proportion of those with a history of KD in the general population of 10-year-olds, is currently unknown. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the cumulative incidence of KD in Japan.

Methods: Using the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of KD in Japan from the results of the nationwide surveys, incidence probabilities, that is, the age-specific number of KD patients divided by the population used in the vital statistics, and cumulative proportions of those not affected by KD up to the end of 9 years of age, were calculated. The cumulative incidence was then defined as 1 minus the cumulative proportion. The observed age classes were 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-9 years. All data were calculated by sex.

Results: The cumulative incidence was 0.004833 for boys and 0.003474 for girls in 1991, but was 0.015284 and 0.012145 in 2014, respectively. According to these figures, 15.284 per 1,000 boys and 12.145 per 1,000 girls have been affected by KD by the age of 10 years. The birth-cohort cumulative incidences had similar trends.

Conclusions: More than 10 persons in 1,000 have a history of KD at age 10 years in Japan.