AI Article Synopsis
- The paper focuses on the importance of forecasting sea ice extent and thickness, along with weather conditions, for safe marine transportation in the Arctic, especially along the Northeast Passage.
- It validates its findings by comparing them with observed sea ice concentrations, using top Earth system models from the IPCC CMIP5 to predict future sea ice conditions.
- The results indicate a trend towards reduced summer sea ice cover, but highlight significant internal variability that could still obstruct shipping routes, underscoring the need for accurate short-term sea ice and weather forecasts.
Article Abstract
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 | DOI Listing |
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